US Economic Notes

Latest edition · October 2, 2026

DB Research US Economic Notes

The September employment report showed softer headline and private payrolls, but labor market health remains intact and continues to support consumer spending. Deutsche Bank maintains its call for two more 25bp Fed rate hikes over the coming quarters.

Following a volatile September that saw 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rise roughly 40 bps and 50 bps respectively, the US economic data docket slows down heading into the week of October 5. Although the September jobs report showed headline payroll gains slowing to +29k alongside wage growth softness, prime-age labor force participation and employment ratios improved, and overall labor income remains supportive of growth. With upcoming releases including the September FOMC minutes and the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment reading, Deutsche Bank expects the Fed to maintain a focus on inflation and deliver two additional 25bp rate increases over the next couple of quarters.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Despite soft headline (+29k) and private (+46k) September payrolls alongside 60k of downward revisions, the labor market remains stable with labor income growth supportive of consumer spending.
• 2.Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast for two additional 25bp Federal Reserve interest rate hikes over the next couple of quarters as policymakers stay focused on inflation.
• 3.Treasury yields surged in September with 2-year yields up over 40 bps and 10-year yields up nearly 50 bps, reflecting a repricing of Fed policy expectations and higher growth.

What this series covers

• What you need to know for the week ahead
• Figure 1: Data docket and DB forecasts
• Figure 2: Fedspeak calendar
• Figure 3: DB US Economics forecast summary
• Figure 4: Data calendar & DB forecasts

Edition archive

• DB Research US Economic Notes

  October 2, 2026

• US Econ Notes Sep 28

  September 27, 2026

• US Econ Notes Sep 18

  September 18, 2026

• DB US Econ Notes Sep 11

  September 11, 2026

• US Econ Notes Sep 4

  September 4, 2026

• US Econ Notes Aug 28

  August 28, 2026