Recurring series

Fed Notes

Finvaulta tracks 9 editions of Fed Notes from Deutsche Bank, published between June 30, 2026 and September 16, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.

Latest edition · September 16, 2026

DB Sept FOMC recap Removing a dose of accommodation helps the inflation go down

The FOMC delivered a 25bp rate hike in September 2026 to 3.75%-4.00% and projected a more hawkish rate path in the SEP. Deutsche Bank expects two more 25bp hikes in December and March, fully unwinding last year's risk management cuts.

At the September 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve increased the target fed funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, driven by robust growth, sturdy employment conditions, and sticky inflation. The dot plot shifted notably hawkish, raising median projections for 2026 to 4.125% and 2027 to 4.125%, while nudging the long-run neutral rate to 3.2%. Chair Warsh framed the move as removing accommodation and warned against myopic data-point dependence, pointing to AI capex demand, solid growth, and geopolitical pressures as drivers of higher interest rates. Deutsche Bank maintains its call for additional 25bp hikes in December 2026 and March 2027.

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Key takeaways from the latest edition

1.The Fed raised the target fed funds range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% and released a more hawkish SEP dot plot indicating further tightening.
2.Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast of 50 bps of additional tightening via 25 bp rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027.
3.Fed Chair Warsh rejected short-term 'data-point dependence', characterizing the hike as removing accommodation amid strong growth and sticky inflation.

What this series covers

FOMC statement
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
Press conference

Edition archive

Series at a glance

Editions tracked: 9
First edition: June 30, 2026
Latest edition: September 16, 2026

All Deutsche Bank research

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