Early Morning Reid

Latest edition · September 14, 2026

DB Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

Global markets are grappling with multi-year highs in sovereign bond yields driven by rising energy prices and elevated core inflation data ahead of policy meetings from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ. Meanwhile, Asian chipmakers and US tech futures fell sharply following a weekend debate among AI industry leaders over the pace of frontier model development.

Deutsche Bank's macro strategy update highlights an eventful start to the week characterized by market weakness in tech equities following AI industry discussions regarding safety and development limits. In commodities and rates, Brent crude rebounded above $107/bbl amid Middle Eastern infrastructure disruption and Strait of Hormuz corridor delays, sustaining stagflation fears after last week's sharp rise in sovereign bond yields (US 10-year at 4.97% and Bund at 3.50%). A crucial week of central bank decisions lies ahead, with Deutsche Bank economists forecasting a 25bp Fed rate hike, a hold from the Bank of England at 3.75%, and a 25bp hike from the Bank of Japan.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Frontier AI leaders sparked debate over whether development speed requires more safety oversight, driving a selloff in Asian chipmakers and US tech futures, though a cutback in total AI capex remains unlikely.
• 2.Global sovereign bond yields surged to multi-year highs (US 10-year at 4.97%, German Bund at 3.50%) driven by rising energy prices and persistent inflation pressures.
• 3.It is a pivotal central bank week with DB economists expecting a 25bp Fed rate hike (market pricing 87%), an on-hold decision by the Bank of England (3.75%), and a 25bp hike by the Bank of Japan.

What this series covers

• Key Market Data
• Other Market Data
• Day-by-day calendar of events
• Key Economic Data
• Topical Deutsche Bank publications

Edition archive

• DB Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

  September 14, 2026

• DB Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

  September 11, 2026

• DB Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

  September 10, 2026

• Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

  September 9, 2026

• Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

  September 8, 2026

• DB Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

  September 7, 2026