DB CoTD

Latest edition · September 3, 2026

DB CoTD: From GPUs to IOUs

Surging US tech sector debt issuance—driven by aggressive hyperscaler capex, unexpected SpaceX bond issuance, and semiconductor deals—is pushing 2026 net US IG corporate supply to record levels. However, robust investor inflows and subdued borrowing outside of technology mean broader credit spread widening fears remain premature.

A key factor pushing Treasury yields higher in recent months has been heavy non-government debt issuance, predominantly led by technology companies. Hyperscalers raising capex guidance, unexpected borrowing by SpaceX, and large deals from semiconductor firms have caused US IG spreads to widen roughly 8bp from late-May tights to about 79bp over Treasuries. Despite forecasts indicating 2026 net US IG issuance will surpass the 2020 record, robust demand inflows continue to clear the market. Furthermore, non-tech corporate issuance remains subdued, contrasting sharply with the debt-financed M&A and buyback wave of 2015 and indicating that fears of systemic spread widening are premature.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Surging US non-government bond supply, heavily concentrated in tech (hyperscaler capex, semiconductor deals, and SpaceX), has contributed to higher Treasury yields and caused modest credit spread indigestion.
• 2.US investment-grade corporate net supply is on track to set an all-time record in 2026, slightly eclipsing 2020 pandemic refinancing levels, but record demand and inflows continue to absorb it.
• 3.Outside the technology sector, corporate debt issuance is subdued without signs of a broad releveraging cycle or heavy M&A/buybacks, meaning fears of a 2015-style spread widening remain premature.

Edition archive

• DB CoTD: From GPUs to IOUs

  September 3, 2026

• DB CoTD: Returns from the beach

  September 1, 2026

• DB CoTD: 250 not out

  June 24, 2026

• DB CoTD: 4%

  June 12, 2026

• DB CoTD: RED SOX 20260608

  June 8, 2026