Chart of the Day

Latest edition · October 6, 2026

DB CoTD Keep Calm and Muddle On

Deutsche Bank's global survey shows investors believe the US will ultimately deal with its debt burden through muddling through and inflation, with 57% ranking inflation in the top two. In contrast, fiscal consolidation and outright default are viewed as the least likely outcomes.

According to Deutsche Bank's latest dbDataInsights global survey, market participants see muddling through (40% first-place votes) and inflation (57% in top two) as the primary ways the US will ultimately resolve its sovereign debt overhang. Stronger economic growth via AI productivity came in third at 45% top-two placement. Respondents largely dismissed fiscal consolidation (49% in bottom two) and default (92% ranked 5th or 6th). The author posits that a mix of inflation, financial repression, and eventually bond vigilante-enforced fiscal discipline will drive the outcome, alongside renewed Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.While 'muddling through indefinitely' received the most first-place votes (40%) to resolve US debt, inflation is the most consensual route with 57% ranking it first or second.
• 2.Stronger growth ranks third (45% top two), reflecting high hopes for AI-driven productivity to alleviate debt pressures.
• 3.Fiscal consolidation is viewed as highly unlikely, with only 4% ranking it first and 49% placing it in the bottom two, while default or restructuring is virtually ruled out with 92% placing it fifth or sixth.

Edition archive

• DB CoTD Keep Calm and Muddle On

  October 6, 2026

• DB CoTD September Sticks to the Seasonal Script

  October 1, 2026

• DB CoTD: A window before winter?

  September 29, 2026

• DB CoTD: What If?

  September 24, 2026

• DB CotD 15 in 70 years Sept 16

  September 16, 2026

• DB CoTD: 15 in 70 years....

  September 16, 2026