Report published October 1, 2026
September Sticks to the Seasonal Script: Deutsche Bank Asset Performance Review
Deutsche Bank · October 1, 2026
Q3 saw significant inflationary impulses and central bank rate hikes trigger a global bond sell-off and a mild September pullback in equities. However, resilient growth and earnings kept overall quarterly equity returns positive ahead of the seasonally strong fourth quarter.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Global bonds experienced a sharp sell-off in Q3 driven by resurging inflation impulses and central bank rate hikes, with the US 10-year Treasury yield jumping 53 bps in September alone.
- 2.Commodities rallied significantly during Q3, led by Brent crude (+42.0%) and WTI (+30.1%) amid Middle East conflict escalation, alongside substantial surges in agricultural commodities.
- 3.Equities showed resilience across Q3 (+2.3% for S&P 500) supported by economic growth and the Magnificent 7 (+11.1%), despite a slight seasonal pullback in September (-0.3%) and weakness in semiconductors.
Report data
Figure 1: Total Return Performance (USD terms) of selected global assets in Q3 and September ranked by Q3 performance
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Total/Spot Return | 42.0% | Jumped on re-escalation in Iran conflict and MoU breakdown |
| WTI Crude Total/Spot Return | 30.1% | Driven higher by geopolitical developments |
| Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index Return | 13.1% | Biggest quarterly jump since 2022 |
| US 10yr Treasury Yield Change | 53 bps | Biggest monthly jump in 4 years and 7th consecutive monthly increase |
| Euro Sovereigns Total Return | -4.4% | Worst quarterly performance since 2022 |
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