Report published September 30, 2026

September Sales Preview: Deutsche Bank US Light Vehicle SAAR & Pricing Analysis

Deutsche Bank · September 30, 2026

Deutsche Bank expects September 2026 US light vehicle SAAR to reach 16.1m units with absolute sales of ~1.325m units. Vehicle transaction prices remain resilient (+0.4% YoY) as overall incentive spending fell 2.0% YoY, keeping full-year SAAR expectations steady at 16.0m.

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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.September US light vehicle SAAR is projected at 16.1m units (down from ~16.7m last year), with full-year 2026 anticipated SAAR maintained at 16.0m.
2.Absolute monthly vehicle sales are projected at ~1.325m units, down MoM from August (~1.388m) but up YoY from September 2025 (~1.269m).
3.Vehicle pricing remains resilient with average transaction prices (ATP) flattish MoM (-0.1%) but up 0.4% YoY, while industry incentives declined 6.9% MoM and 2.0% YoY.

September Sales Preview
Industry Sales
Pricing

Report data

Figure 1: September 2026 Monthly Sales

Metric	Estimate	Context
September US Light Vehicle SAAR	16.1 million units	Projected US seasonally adjusted annualized rate of light vehicle sales for September 2026
Full-Year Anticipated US Light Vehicle SAAR	16.0 million units	Deutsche Bank maintained forecast for full-year 2026 US light vehicle SAAR
September US Light Vehicle Absolute Sales	1325020.0 units	Estimated total light vehicle industry sales volume for September 2026
Industry Average Transaction Price (ATP)	46078.0 USD	Average transaction price across the US auto industry at mid-month September
Industry Average Incentive	3144.0 USD	Mid-month September average incentive spend per unit, representing 6.8% of ATP