Report published October 1, 2026
September and Q3 2026 Performance Review – Deutsche Bank Macro Research
Deutsche Bank · October 1, 2026
Q3 2026 saw significant market crosscurrents as escalating US-Iran conflict drove Brent crude up +42.0%, reigniting inflation pressures and prompting rate hikes from the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. This caused a steep selloff in sovereign bonds, while resilient economic growth helped the S&P 500 post a +2.3% total return gain.
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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict triggered an energy shock, propelling Brent crude up +42.0% in Q3 to close at $103.53/bbl and pushing agricultural commodities to their largest quarterly rise since 2022.
- 2.Renewed inflation pressures prompted central banks into a synchronized hawkish shift, with rate hikes delivered by the Fed, ECB, and the Bank of Japan.
- 3.Sovereign debt markets suffered widespread losses, sending the US 10-year Treasury yield up +82bps to 5.28% (highest since 2007) and widening the Franco-German 10-year spread to 127bps.
Table of Contents
- Quarter in Review - The high-level macro overview
- Which assets saw the biggest gains in Q3?
- Which assets saw the biggest losses in Q3?
Report data
Figure 7: Total Return Performance of Major Global Financial Assets (Local Currency)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude oil quarterly price return | 42.0% | Brent crude surged from ~$73/bbl to close at $103.53/bbl due to escalating US-Iran conflict. |
| European natural gas futures return | 66.6% | European natural gas futures recorded sharp gains over Q3. |
| US 10-Year Treasury yield change | 82 bps | Yield rose +82bps to end the quarter at 5.28%, reaching its highest level since 2007. |
| German 10-Year Bund yield change | 73 bps | Bund yield ended Q3 at 3.58%. |
| Franco-German 10-year yield spread | 127 bps | Widened +48bps in Q3 to 127bps, the highest level since the 2011-2012 Euro crisis. |
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