Report published September 29, 2026
Netflix: Upgrading to Buy – Deutsche Bank Equity Research
Deutsche Bank · September 29, 2026
Deutsche Bank upgraded Netflix to Buy from Hold with a revised price target of $95, citing an attractive valuation of 18x 2027E EPS following a roughly 50% price decline. While US time spent has softened cyclically, expanding international engagement, a scaled overseas production moat, and platform monetization optionality support durable double-digit earnings growth.
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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Deutsche Bank upgrades Netflix to Buy from Hold with a revised $95 price target (down from $100), arguing current valuation (18x 2027E EPS) creates an attractive entry point.
- 2.Market concern regarding domestic US time-spent softness overlooks healthy international engagement and a larger addressable market, with Rest of World (ROW) viewing minutes up 5.4% y/y in 1H26.
- 3.Over 60% of Netflix's content production originates outside the US, establishing a substantial and durable competitive moat over competitors in regional content creation.
Table of Contents
- Upgrading to Buy
- International Time Spent Has Been Growing, and International Is The Larger Growth Opportunity Vs The (More Mature) US
- Netflix's Regional Production Capabilities Are A Competitive Advantage That Will Support Future International Growth
- Netflix As A Platform (NAAP): Could NAAP Be The Future?
- We Believe Valuation Has Settled Into An Attractive Level That Is Commensurate with A More Realistic, Yet Still Healthy, Growth Outlook
- US Viewing Time Will Likely Continue To Decline YoY through 4Q
- We See US Viewing Declines As More Cyclical/Content Driven Than Structural
- Time Spent Is Important, But Is Not 100% Correlated To Value
Report data
Figure 1: Growing International Netflix Minutes (YoY Growth) — as of September 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | 95.00 USD | Lowered from $100 to $95 on lower OI and FCF estimates post 2Q actuals |
| Closing Stock Price | 71.15 USD | Price as of 25 September 2026 |
| Rest of World (ROW) Minutes Viewed Growth | 5.4% | ROW minutes increased 5.4% y/y while US minutes declined 8.6% |
| US Minutes Viewed Growth | -8.6% | US viewing hours declined due to tough slate comparisons and sporting events |
| Non-US Content Production Share | >60% | Share of total Netflix content production originating outside the US |
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