Report published September 3, 2026
Deutsche Bank FX Research: Macro Note on AI Capex, US Inflows, and Asian FX Divergence
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Deutsche Bank
- Report date
- September 3, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Global growth remains exceptionally resilient due to dual engines of private AI capex and public investment in strategic autonomy, sustaining the outperformance of FX carry trades. Meanwhile, foreign capital flows into the US have shifted decisively from bonds to equities, and appreciating Asian currencies like KRW and CNY leave the Japanese Yen as the key global outlier.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global growth resilience driven by private AI capex and public spending on strategic autonomy continues to support equities, high yields, low volatility, and FX carry trades.
- 2.US foreign inflows have rotated from fixed income to equities due to corporate AI profitability versus persistent 6%+ fiscal deficits, tying the dollar's fate to US equity and AI performance.
- 3.South Korea is experiencing a terms-of-trade shock driving KRW appreciation, leaving the Japanese Yen as the primary regional and global laggard primed for BoJ hikes toward 2%+ and GPIF rebalancing.
Table of Contents
- The golden age of growth.
- The huge rotation.
- The lucky country.
Report data
Figure 2: For the first time, America is equity financed
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Korea Equity Market YTD Return | 56% | Korean equity markets booming year-to-date |
| Korea GDP Growth | 3+% | Booming growth in Korea projected in 2026 |
| Korea 1y1y Yield | 4% | Booming Korean bond yields |
| Korean Won (KRW) Currency Return | 15% | Appreciation of KRW driven by terms of trade shock |
| US Fiscal Deficit | 6+% | Persistent US public sector deficit dragging down foreign appetite for US bonds |
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Reported Data Context
- Korea Equity Market YTD Return: 56 % (YTD)
- Korea GDP Growth: 3+ % (2026)
- Korean Won (KRW) Currency Return: 15 % (8 weeks)