Jackson Hole 2026 Preview: Deutsche Bank on Fed Policy and Keynote Scenarios

Deutsche Bank previews Fed Chair Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole keynote address, evaluating whether he will deliver a broad conceptual speech on AI and internal Fed task forces or a traditional policy setup for upcoming FOMC meetings. The authors expect Warsh's remarks to skew toward a big-picture overview rather than detailed forward guidance.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Fed Chair Warsh's upcoming Jackson Hole keynote address is likely to choose between a 'big-picture speech' (focused on task forces and AI) or a 'policy speech' setting up action between September and December.
• 2.The speech follows a July FOMC meeting marked by three dissents in favor of a rate hike as inflation remains elevated for the sixth consecutive year.
• 3.If addressing policy, Warsh may seek to clean up ambiguities from the July press conference regarding the Fed's commitment to PCE and its willingness to use rate hikes to tighten policy.

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• "Big-picture speech" topics
• Policy speech
• Conclusion
• Appendix 1
• Analyst Certification
• Important Disclosures
• Additional Information

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Reports in this series

Fed Notes is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 21, 2026.

Part of the Fed Notes series — view all 8 editions

1. Jun 30DB Fed Notes Task force takes #1 Communications
2. Jul 7DB Fed Notes Task force takes #2 The balance sheet
3. Jul 16DB Fed Notes Task force takes #3 AI's impact on productivity and jobs
4. Jul 27DB Fed Notes Task force takes #4 Fed's inflation frameworks
5. Jul 27DB Fed Notes Task force takes #4 Fed's inflation frameworks
6. Aug 17DB Fed Notes Task force takes #5 Alternative data

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