Report published September 4, 2026
ECB Preview: Deutsche Bank Raises Euro Area Terminal Rate Forecast to 2.75%
Deutsche Bank · September 4, 2026
Deutsche Bank raises its ECB terminal deposit rate forecast from 2.50% to 2.75%, projecting a 25bp hike in September followed by a final 25bp hike in December 2026. This change reflects persistent energy price pressures from gas, resilient GDP growth supported by AI and defence capex, and a rising neutral rate.
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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Deutsche Bank expects the ECB to hike the deposit rate to 2.50% in September and updates its terminal rate forecast to 2.75% with an additional hike in December 2026.
- 2.Persistent energy pressures, particularly gas prices reaching new highs, add persistence to inflation, prompting an upgrade in Deutsche Bank's 2027 euro area headline HICP forecast to 2.7%.
- 3.Economic growth and credit have proved resilient, supported by defence spending and an AI capex cycle, driving upgrades to GDP growth forecasts of 0.8% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027.
Table of Contents
- ECB Preview: Call Update - Not done just yet
- Updated ECB call: Amid high uncertainty, 2.75% a more probable terminal rate
- We see two-sided risks around 2.75%
- ECB Staff Macro Projections
- ECB Framework Guidance: Framing the decision and communications
- Will President Lagarde repeat that markets understand the reaction function “very well”?
- Appendix 1
- Additional Information
Report data
DB expectations for the updated ECB staff macroeconomic projections
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Forecast) | 2.50% | Expected rate hike at the September meeting |
| ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Terminal Forecast) | 2.75% | Updated terminal deposit rate forecast |
| Market Implied ECB Terminal Rate | 3.00-3.10% | Current market pricing for peak ECB policy rate |
| Euro Area Real GDP Growth (Q2) | 0.44 % qoq | Quarter-on-quarter growth, expanding almost 2% (1.75%) annualized |
| Euro Area Real GDP Growth Forecast | 0.8% | Upgraded from 0.5% previously |
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