Report published October 1, 2026
Deutsche Bank: Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy (October 1, 2026)
Deutsche Bank · October 1, 2026
Global fixed income endured further heavy selling as US 10-year yields reached 5.28% and European sovereign spreads widened, overshadowing downward revisions to US PCE inflation data. Commodity inflation and central bank hawkishness remain dominant headwinds heading into Q4.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Global bond market sell-off persisted despite softer US core PCE inflation data, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5.28% and 30-year yields reaching 5.63%.
- 2.Downward revisions to previous US PCE inflation readings reduced expectations of an October Fed rate hike to 37%, though headline and European inflation pressures remain elevated.
- 3.European sovereign bond spreads widened under inflationary pressure, with the Franco-German 10-year spread reaching 127 bps, its highest level since June 2012.
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Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.28% | Reached highest level since 2007 peak. |
| US 30-Year Treasury Yield | 5.63% | Reached highest level since 2002. |
| Franco-German 10-Year Spread | 127 bps | Widest spread level since June 2012, up from 85 bps at the start of the month. |
| US Core PCE (3-month annualized rate) | 2.05% | Softest 3-month annualized rate since July 2024 following downward revisions. |
| Brent Crude Spot Price | 103.53 USD/bbl | Surged before front-month benchmark roll towards $98/bbl. |
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Early Morning Reid is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on October 1, 2026.
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