Report published September 30, 2026
Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy | Deutsche Bank Daily Research (September 30, 2026)
Deutsche Bank · September 30, 2026
Global markets saw mixed performance as an intraday pullback in energy prices and dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams lowered October rate hike expectations, even as the US 30-year yield and Franco-German 10-year spread hit multi-year highs. Asian markets traded mostly higher overnight supported by stronger Chinese PMI prints.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Energy prices fell sharply intraday following reports that Saudi Arabia restored Yanbu port loadings and the US announced a 40m barrel SPR release, though longer-dated oil futures continued to climb.
- 2.Front-end yields rallied and October Fed rate-hike odds fell from 70% to 47% after NY Fed President Williams signaled no urgency to hike, while 30-year yields reached a post-2002 high of 5.57%-5.67%.
- 3.European sovereign debt displayed widening divergence, with the Franco-German 10yr spread hitting a post-2012 high of 118 bps on French budget protests and plans for record €340bn borrowing in 2027.
Table of Contents
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Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price | 102.59 USD/bbl | Fell back on Saudi supply resumption headlines and US SPR release announcement. |
| US 30-Year Treasury Yield | 5.57% | Rose to a post-2002 high (noted as 5.67% on page 0 and 5.57% on page 1). |
| Market Implied Probability of October Fed Hike | 47% | Money markets cut back pricing from 70% following comments from NY Fed's Williams. |
| Franco-German 10-Year Sovereign Spread | 118 bps | Reached widest level since 2012 amid French budget protests and 2027 borrowing plans. |
| China Official Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 index points | Increased from 49.8 in August, returning to expansion territory. |
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