Report published September 29, 2026
Deutsche Bank: Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy (September 29, 2026)
Deutsche Bank · September 29, 2026
A relentless global bond selloff continued as elevated crude prices and geopolitical impasse between the US and Iran stoked inflation concerns. Benchmark yields reached multi-year highs across the US and Europe while markets priced in further central bank rate hikes, pressuring equities and widening credit spreads.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.Global bond yields surged to multi-year highs, driven by persistent oil price gains and dashed hopes of a near-term US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough.
- 2.Markets are pricing an increasingly hawkish Fed trajectory, including a 73% probability of an October rate hike and 93bps of hikes priced by June 2027.
- 3.Risk assets showed signs of mounting strain, with the S&P 500 falling 0.77%, the Magnificent 7 dropping 1.72%, and credit spreads widening to April highs across the US and Europe.
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Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Spot Price | 107.3 USD/bbl | Brent crude trading higher following weekend rejection of Iran's proposal by Trump |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.26% | approaching the 2007 closing peak of 5.29% |
| US 10-Year Real Yield | 2.89% | reached a new post-2008 high |
| October Fed Rate Hike Probability | 73% | implied probability from futures market for an October rate increase |
| Cumulative Fed Hikes Priced by June 2027 | 93 bps | markets pricing the most hawkish path to date |
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Early Morning Reid is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 29, 2026.
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