Report published September 25, 2026

Deutsche Bank: Early Morning Reid – Macro Strategy (September 25, 2026)

Deutsche Bank · September 25, 2026

Global bond yields surged to multi-decade highs, led by the US 10-year Treasury yield hitting 5.20% and European benchmarks reaching post-2008/2009 peaks. The move was fueled by an oil price jump past $106/bbl amid Middle East escalation and solid US economic activity data.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 3 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Soaring oil and gas prices alongside resilient US economic data triggered a sharp sell-off in sovereign bond yields, sending the US 10-year yield to a post-2007 high of 5.20%.
2.The Treasury sell-off is being driven almost entirely by real yields (+9.8 bps to 2.87%, a post-2008 high) rather than inflation breakevens, suggesting markets are pricing in higher neutral rates and sustained central bank tightness.
3.European bond yields followed the US upward to multi-year highs, with 10-year Bunds reaching 3.60% (post-2009 high) and 10-year French OATs reaching 4.69% (post-2008 high).

Key Market Data
Other Market Data
Key Economic Data
Topical Deutsche Bank publications

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
10-Year US Treasury Yield	5.20%	Reached a new post-2007 high.
Brent Crude Oil	106.60 USD/bbl	Surged amid Strait of Hormuz blockade and Middle East conflict concerns.
10-Year US Real Yield	2.87%	Reached a post-2008 high, up 97 bps in 2026.
US Initial Jobless Claims	197 k	Came in below consensus of 200k, taking the 4-week moving average down to 202.25k.
US Natural Gas Futures	9.06%	Biggest daily jump since January following pipeline pressure reduction.