Report published September 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy, Sovereign Yields, and Energy Inflation
Deutsche Bank · September 8, 2026
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid highlights the continued normalization of global bond yields, with German 10-year Bunds hitting post-2011 highs of 3.39% amid rising energy prices. Markets are pricing further ECB rate hikes, while robust Japanese wage data reinforces expectations for another BOJ rate increase next week.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.The ongoing rise in global bond yields reflects a long-term normalization from the ultra-loose conditions of the 2010s rather than an immediate fiscal crisis or sudden regime shift.
- 2.Energy and inflation pressures re-emerged as Brent crude rallied toward $97/bbl amid Middle East tensions and infrastructure attacks, pushing German 10-year Bund yields to a post-2011 high of 3.39%.
- 3.Strong Japanese wage data (real wages +2.4% y/y, cash earnings +4.7%) cements the case for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at next week's policy meeting.
Table of Contents
- Key Market Data
- Other Market Data
- Key Economic Data
- Topical Deutsche Bank publications
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| German 10-Year Bund Yield | 3.39% | Closed at another post-2011 high |
| Brent Crude Price | 97.0 $/bbl | Reached a 6-week high on Middle East hostilities and infrastructure strikes |
| Japan Real Wages Growth | 2.4% | Strongest growth since May 2021 and 7th consecutive monthly gain |
| Japan Total Cash Earnings | 4.7% | Largest increase since January 1997 |
| China Trade Surplus | 119.09 USD Billion | Broadly in line with market expectations of $119.10B as exports jumped +25.0% |
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