Report published September 7, 2026
Deutsche Bank: Early Morning Reid – Macro Strategy & Market Outlook (Sept 7, 2026)
Deutsche Bank · September 7, 2026
Deutsche Bank's morning note highlights rising energy prices and Middle East maritime tensions alongside a rightward shift in German regional politics. Ahead of the ECB meeting and US August CPI, the author argues that rising bond yields reflect continued post-Covid normalization where coupons now provide meaningful return protection.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.German political landscape shifted rightward as the AfD won ~44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than double its 2021 share, while Chancellor Merz's CDU fell to ~17%.
- 2.Middle East escalation targeting commercial shipping in the Gulf has elevated energy supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent oil above $97/bbl.
- 3.Key event risks for the week include the US August CPI report on Friday and the ECB meeting on Thursday, where DB economists forecast a 25bp rate hike to 2.50%.
Table of Contents
- Key Market Data
- Day-by-day calendar of events
- Monday September 7
- Tuesday September 8
- Wednesday September 9
- Thursday September 10
- Friday September 11
- Other Market Data
- Key Economic Data
- Topical Deutsche Bank publications
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report — as of September 7, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| AfD vote share in Saxony-Anhalt state election | 44.0% | Strongest result in any German election to date and more than double its support from 2021. |
| CDU vote share in Saxony-Anhalt state election | 17.0% | Weakest showing in the state for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party. |
| Brent Crude Price | 97.29 USD/bbl | Up on continued maritime tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls Change | 162.0 k | Exceeded expectations of +55k, accompanied by 55k upward revisions to prior two months. |
| ECB Deposit Rate Forecast | 2.5% | DB European economists expect a 25bp hike on Thursday, followed by an additional hike in December. |
Reports in this series
Early Morning Reid is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 7, 2026.
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