Report published September 4, 2026
Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid: Dovish Fed Repricing and Market Reaction Ahead of Payrolls
Deutsche Bank · September 4, 2026
A cross-asset rally halted the global bond selloff after Fed Governor Waller questioned the necessity of a September rate hike, reducing market hike pricing to 51%. Investors now await today's US jobs report, where Deutsche Bank economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rebound by +65k with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.
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Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Dovish remarks from Fed Governor Waller sparked a cross-asset rally, pausing a relentless global bond selloff and lowering the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to 51%.
- 2.Attention turns to the August US nonfarm payrolls report; Deutsche Bank economists forecast a rebound of +65k payrolls with unemployment remaining steady at 4.1%.
- 3.Energy prices fell across oil and natural gas, reducing near-term stagflation fears and supporting European sovereign bonds and equity markets.
Table of Contents
- Key Market Data
- Other Market Data
- Key Economic Data
- Topical Deutsche Bank publications
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report — as of September 4, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Market probability of September Fed rate hike | 51.0% | Futures repricing following dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller. |
| ISM Services Index | 55.4 index points | Rose to a 6-month high, while the prices paid component rose to a 4-year high of 72.6. |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast | 65.0 k | Deutsche Bank US economists' estimate ahead of the release. |
| Japanese Household Spending | -3.6 % YoY | Contracted at the fastest annual pace in two and a half years, marking eighth consecutive month of decline. |
| European Natural Gas Future | 71.8 EUR/MWh | Fell after rising nearly 10% over the previous three days, easing energy spike fears. |
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