Report published September 2, 2026
Deutsche Bank Macro Strategy: Early Morning Reid – Global Sovereign Bond Selloff and Energy Shock
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Deutsche Bank
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jim Reid
Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Escalating US-Iran conflict and a jump in oil prices sparked a global risk-off move, sending sovereign bond yields to multi-year highs and depressing equity markets. Hawkish rhetoric and renewed inflation concerns have raised market expectations for policy rate hikes across the Fed, ECB, RBNZ, and RBA.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent oil (+4.6%) to $94.65/bbl and European natural gas futures (+3.3%) to €72.22/MWh.
- 2.Global sovereign bond yields surged to multi-year and multi-decade highs, with the US 10yr Treasury reaching 4.80%, German 10yr Bund at 3.34%, 10yr Gilt at 5.22%, and Japan 10yr yields crossing 3% for the first time in 30 years.
- 3.Central bank rate hike expectations intensified following hawkish comments from Fed Governor Barr and ECB's Simkus, alongside a 25bp hike by the RBNZ to 2.75% and stronger Australian GDP data lifting RBA hike bets.
Table of Contents
- Key Market Data
- Other Market Data
- Key Economic Data
- Topical Deutsche Bank publications
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil Price | 94.65 USD/bbl | Highest level since July following US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. |
| European Natural Gas Futures | 72.22 EUR/MWh | Hit a 3-year high amid energy market tensions. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.80% | Highest level since October 2023. |
| German 10-Year Bund Yield | 3.34% | Post-2011 high. |
| UK 10-Year Gilt Yield | 5.22% | Post-2008 high. |
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Early Morning Reid is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 2, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brent Crude Oil Price: 94.65 USD/bbl (Close)
- European Natural Gas Futures: 72.22 EUR/MWh (Close)
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.80 % (Current/Close)
- German 10-Year Bund Yield: 3.34 % (Close)
- UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 5.22 % (Close)