Report published September 1, 2026
Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy – Deutsche Bank Research (September 1, 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Deutsche Bank
- Report date
- September 1, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jim Reid
Finvaulta summarizes Deutsche Bank's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Global bond yields reached multi-year highs and equities softened as the US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and markets digested hawkish Jackson Hole remarks from Fed Chair Warsh. Brent crude climbed past $90/bbl while September Fed rate hike odds rose to 67%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global bond yields surged to multi-year highs (US 10yr to 4.75%, JGB 10yr touching 3.00% for the first time since 1996, and Bunds to 3.32%) driven by hawkish central bank commentary and Middle East escalation.
- 2.Following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, markets have repriced a 67% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September, with DB economists expecting 50bps of total tightening in 2026 across September and December.
- 3.Geopolitical conflict escalated as the US and Iran exchanged strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude above $90/bbl and European natural gas up +4.23% to €69.81/MWh.
Table of Contents
- Key Market Data
- Day-by-day calendar of events
- Other Market Data
- Key Economic Data
- Topical Deutsche Bank publications
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | 4.75% | Highest close since January 2025. |
| 10-Year Japan Government Bond Yield | 2.99% | Touched the 3.00% level for the first time since 1996. |
| Brent Crude Price | 90.49 USD/bbl | Rose on US-Iran escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. |
| European Natural Gas Price | 69.81 EUR/MWh | Rose to highest level since January 2023. |
| Market Implied September Fed Hike Probability | 67.0% | Repriced hawkishly following Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. |
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Early Morning Reid is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 1, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.75 % (2026-08-31)
- 10-Year Japan Government Bond Yield: 2.99 % (2026-09-01)
- Brent Crude Price: 90.49 USD/bbl (2026-08-31)
- European Natural Gas Price: 69.81 EUR/MWh (2026-08-31)
- Market Implied September Fed Hike Probability: 67.0 % (2026-09-01)