Weekly Focus

Latest edition · August 28, 2026

Weekly Focus 280826

Danske Bank notes that headline European inflation is rising due to energy prices but core inflation continues to moderate, pointing to a final ECB 25bp rate hike in September. Global macro conditions remain resilient, with the Fed expected to hike twice by Q1 2027.

In this Weekly Focus, Danske Bank assesses global and Scandinavian economic developments. Early August inflation in France and Spain showed subdued core pressures despite energy cost increases, supporting Danske's call that the ECB will deliver a final 25bp hike in September 2026 without subsequent rate cuts in 2027. Meanwhile, resilient US demand and core PCE inflation at 3.3% y/y maintain pressure on the Fed to hike in December and March. In Scandinavia, Sweden's Q2 GDP beat expectations at 3.3% y/y, reinforcing a hawkish Riksbank outlook, while Denmark's raised 3.7% GDP growth projection remains dominated by pharmaceuticals.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Energy price spikes have not translated into secondary core inflation pressures in the euro area, supporting expectations for a 25bp ECB rate hike in September with no further hikes thereafter.
• 2.Danske Bank expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates in December 2026 and March 2027 amid resilient demand and AI-driven cost pressures.
• 3.Sweden's stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth (+3.3% y/y) and hawkish Riksbank minutes suggest the central bank's next move will likely be a rate hike.

What this series covers

• No energy spillovers to core inflation in Europe
• Key global views
• Key market movers
• Selected reading from Danske Bank
• Market Movers Scandinavia
• Scandi Update
• Denmark – Government raises expectations
• Sweden – The Riksbank leans more hawkish, with uncertain timing
• Norway – growth remains muted
• Calendar – 31 August – 4 September 2026
• Macroeconomic forecast
• Financial forecast
• Disclosures

Edition archive

• Weekly Focus 280826

  August 28, 2026

• Weekly Focus 040626

  June 4, 2026

• Weekly Focus 220526

  May 25, 2026

• Weekly Focus 080526

  May 10, 2026