FX Daily

Latest edition · July 14, 2026

USD Iran

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran are driving safe-haven demand for the USD. Markets are now awaiting CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony to gauge future policy direction.

The USD continues to outperform as a safe-haven asset amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which have disrupted energy and fixed income markets. However, with the currency already overbought and showing stretched valuations, analysts suggest hesitation in increasing long exposure. Focus now shifts to US June inflation data and testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to determine if the current Fed policy path remains sustainable.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Escalating US-Iran tensions are driving safe-haven demand for the USD.
• 2.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming testimony and US June CPI data are the primary market focus.
• 3.The USD remains expensive according to FX fair value models, suggesting limited room for further long-side expansion.

What this series covers

• USD: Iran, inflation, Warsh and all that
• Asia overnight
• Introducing RMA!
• Latest publications
• Overnight returns (%, vs USD)
• 1M implied volatility daily change (net, vs USD)
• Open trade recommendations
• Key events
• FX Research advanced tools
• Red Mount Analytics

Edition archive

• USD Iran

  July 14, 2026

• EUR GBP enough pounding!

  July 13, 2026

• EUR minutes too late

  July 9, 2026

• EUR USD blast from the past

  July 7, 2026

• The end of de-dollarisation No

  July 3, 2026

• JPY testing times

  June 30, 2026