Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

Latest edition · July 8, 2026

The atypical dog days of summer

The report highlights market caution driven by geopolitical tensions, potential FOMC policy volatility, and a rotation out of high-growth tech stocks. It provides tactical updates across EM regions, favoring relative value strategies amid an uncertain global macro landscape.

Emerging markets are navigating a period of fragile calm, shaped by renewed US-Iran geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainty regarding central bank rate paths. The report identifies a trend of rotation from tech outperformers into value plays, while monitoring upcoming inflation and GDP data in China and Poland. Regional focus remains on Mexico’s fiscal challenges and divergent monetary policy outlooks across Asia and EMEA. Analysts recommend cautious positioning, prioritizing relative value and specific currency overweights (e.g., KRW) while remaining wary of short-term USD-related volatility.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.US-Iran tensions and tech sector sentiment rotation are primary market drivers.
• 2.FOMC minutes for the June meeting are anticipated as a trigger for renewed volatility.
• 3.Economic slowdown in China with moderated Q2 GDP growth expected at 4.6%.

What this series covers

• Overview
• Main strategies
• Performance of the main EM asset classes
• EMEA: no hawks
• Poland: rate status quo expected
• Hungary: lower inflation confirms the NBH’s dovish bias
• Asia: fragile calm
• Asia strategy: fragile calm
• China: grappling with divergence as June data looms
• Korea: eyes on the BOK's July rate decision
• Malaysia: BNM not to flinch in the face of the weaker MYR
• Latam: a challenging chapter in Mexico’s story
• Mexico: the USMCA becomes subject to annual review
• Trade ideas
• Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
• Calendar
• Charting the past three months...and the past seven days
• Economic forecasts
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Policy rate forecasts
• Emerging Markets Research advanced tools

Edition archive

• The atypical dog days of summer

  July 8, 2026

• Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

  July 1, 2026

• Applying higher discount rate to inflated multiples

  June 24, 2026

• Reframing the market theme

  June 17, 2026

• In a fragile state

  June 11, 2026

• Emerging Market Weekly Pulse - Inflation, tech earnings and union strike

  May 21, 2026