China Weekly Dynamics: Economic Divergence and Mild Reflation Analysis (July 2026)

Key Takeaways

• 1.China's real GDP growth is forecasted to have moderated to 4.6% YoY in Q2, down from 5.0% in Q1.
• 2.Authorities are likely continuing to tolerate CNY strength and narrowing the spot-fixing gap.
• 3.Supply pressure on government bond rates is expected in Q3 due to seasonal duration supply and potential pick-up in PFBs.

Table of Contents

• Macro: Growth divergence and policy implication
• Lowering USD/CNY fixing, supply pressure in rates
• Asset overview and flows
• Macro: Trade dynamics
• Macro: Demand and supply snapshot
• Macro: Prices and inflation
• Macro: monetary and fiscal condition
• FX market: Market dynamics
• FX market: Macro Fundamentals
• FX market: Forwards & options
• Fixed income market: Performance
• Fixed income market: Money market and liquidity
• Fixed income market: Primary market
• Fixed income market: Interbank bond holding
• Calendar

Report data

China asset performance

Reports in this series

China Weekly Dynamics is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on July 13, 2026.

Part of the China Weekly Dynamics series — view all 3 editions

1. Jun 22Macro weakness into June
2. Jun 29PBoC’s debut overnight reverse repo