Report published September 24, 2026
US Shares Fall as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007 – Commonwealth Bank Research
Commonwealth Bank of Australia · September 24, 2026
US equities fell alongside government bonds as 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 5.11%, their highest level since 2007, driven by strong business activity data and surging crude oil prices. Brent crude rose above $US103/bbl after Iran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, stoking expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
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Finvaulta summarizes Commonwealth Bank of Australia's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US equities fell and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields surged 15 bps to 5.11%, reaching their highest level since 2007 following strong US business activity data.
- 2.Crude oil rallied above $US103/bbl after Iran signaled the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened without meeting its conditions, fueling inflation concerns and Fed rate hike expectations.
- 3.A weak $US70 billion 5-year Treasury auction and hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Michael Barr reinforced market expectations for further Fed interest rate hikes, with fed funds futures pricing a 66% chance of an October hike.
Table of Contents
- US shares fall as 10-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
- Key Events to Watch
- Australia and NZ
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Flash US Composite PMI Output Index | 58.4 index points | Highest level since July 2021, tracking manufacturing and services sectors. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 5.11% | Highest level since 2007 and largest one-day rise since April 2025. |
| Brent Crude Futures Price | 103.08 USD/barrel | Settled higher due to geopolitical tension and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. |
| US 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.90% | Reached intraday high of 4.947%, highest since May 2024. |
| Market implied probability of October Fed rate hike | 66% | Priced by fed funds futures traders amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. |
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