Report published August 27, 2026
Sticky Inflation Keeps Markets Cautious: CBA Revises RBA Rate Call to 4.60%
Source and citation context
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Trent Saunders (Author)
Finvaulta summarizes Commonwealth Bank of Australia's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
US equities were subdued and Treasury yields rose as July PCE inflation remained elevated. Following stronger-than-expected July CPI data in Australia, CBA revised its call to forecast a 25bp RBA rate hike in November to 4.60%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.CBA shifted its RBA call following stronger-than-expected July CPI and trimmed mean inflation (3.6%/yr), now projecting a 25bp cash rate hike to 4.60% in November.
- 2.US Treasury yields pushed higher (10-year up 2bp to 4.65%) after elevated July PCE data reinforced higher-for-longer policy expectations.
- 3.Global equities and commodities were subdued, with Brent crude down 1.3% to $US87.4/b amid Iran-Oman talks over the Strait of Hormuz.
Table of Contents
- Sticky inflation keeps market cautious
- Key Events to Watch
- Australia and NZ
- International
Report data
Market Summary Table (Currencies, 10 Yr Bond Yields, Commodities, Equities)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Australia Headline CPI | 3.5 %/yr | Eased from 3.8% in June, but above CBA forecast of 3.2%. |
| Australia Trimmed Mean CPI | 3.6 %/yr | Above CBA forecast of 3.5% and outside the RBA target band. |
| RBA Cash Rate Forecast | 4.60% | CBA revised call expecting a 25bp rate hike. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.65% | Rose after elevated July PCE inflation. |
| US July Core PCE Inflation | 3.3 %/yr | Rose 0.2% over the month and 3.3% over the year. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Australia Headline CPI: 3.5 %/yr (July 2026)
- Australia Trimmed Mean CPI: 3.6 %/yr (July 2026)
- RBA Cash Rate Forecast: 4.60 % (November 2026)
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.65 % (2026-08-26) · Source: Bloomberg
- US July Core PCE Inflation: 3.3 %/yr (July 2026)