Report published August 14, 2026
CBA Economics Perspective: RBA Rate Decision, Credit Deceleration & The Week Ahead
Source and citation context
- Report date
- August 14, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Lucinda Jerogin, Harry Ottley
Finvaulta summarizes Commonwealth Bank of Australia's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% with a hawkish bias if inflation risks materialize, while Q2 housing lending fell 5.2%. For the week ahead, CBA expects flat Australian July employment growth and a 0.8% Q2 WPI increase.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 4.35% as expected, but sharpened guidance stating it is prepared to hike if upside inflation risks materialize; CBA expects rates on hold through 2026.
- 2.Australian new housing lending fell 5.2% in Q2 2026, driven by a 10.2% drop in investor lending amid higher interest rates and economic uncertainty.
- 3.For the upcoming week, CBA expects Australia's July labour force data to show flat employment with unemployment holding at 4.4%, and Q2 WPI to rise 0.8% q/q (3.2% y/y).
Table of Contents
- The Week Ahead
- Chart of the Week
- Key Events to Watch
- Australia and NZ
- International
- Calendar
- Research This Week
- New lending follows the housing market lower
- CBA Wage and Labour Insights July 2026
- Unpacking the Q2 CPI surprise and what comes next
- The RBA holds the cash rate steady in August as expected
- Monetary Policy Outlook
- CBA Forecasts
- Not Investment Research
Report data
AI & INFLATION (annual % change)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| RBA Cash Rate | 4.35% | RBA kept the cash rate on hold at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting |
| New Housing Lending Value | -5.2% | Quarterly decline led by a 10.2% drop in investor lending |
| US Core CPI | 2.5% | Matching the slowest annual pace since March 2021 |
| US PCE Prices for Computer Software and Accessories | 17.4% | Strongest growth in the history of the series dating back to 1977 |
| Forecast Australian Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | CBA forecast for the July Labour Force Survey |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- RBA Cash Rate: 4.35 % (August 2026) · Source: RBA
- New Housing Lending Value: -5.2 % (Q2 2026) · Source: CBA / ABS
- US Core CPI: 2.5 % (July 2026) · Source: US BLS
- US PCE Prices for Computer Software and Accessories: 17.4 % (Year to June 2026) · Source: BEA
- Forecast Australian Unemployment Rate: 4.4 % (July 2026) · Source: CBA