Report published September 30, 2026

August 2026 CPI: Trimmed Mean Unchanged at 3.6% – CBA Macro Report

Commonwealth Bank of Australia · September 30, 2026

Australia's August CPI rose 4.0% YoY, propelled by a 14.8% jump in fuel prices, while monthly trimmed mean inflation slowed to 0.2%, maintaining the annual rate at 3.6%. CBA expects the RBA to hold the cash rate steady in November, despite persistent underlying service price pressures.

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Finvaulta summarizes Commonwealth Bank of Australia's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.August monthly trimmed mean inflation slowed to 0.2%/mth, leaving annual trimmed mean inflation steady at 3.6% and tracking toward 1.0%/qtr in Q3 2026.
2.Headline CPI jumped to 4.0% annualized (0.7% m/m sa), driven substantially by a 14.8% spike in fuel prices and electricity base effects.
3.Market services inflation remained sticky at 4.1%/yr, indicating domestic inflation persistence is unwinding slowly.

August CPI was in line with our expectations
UNDERLYING INFLATION MEASURES
HEADLINE CPI INFLATION
Fuel drove the increase in headline inflation
The composition was mixed relative to our forecasts
Market services remain the key persistence signal
Household goods partly reversed, but not uniformly
New dwelling inflation slowed in August
Measures of underlying and domestically driven inflation remain too high

Report data

UNDERLYING INFLATION MEASURES (annual % change)

Metric	Estimate	Context
Trimmed Mean CPI (Annual)	3.6%	Annual trimmed mean inflation remained steady in August following 0.2% m/m growth
Headline CPI (Annual)	4.0%	Headline inflation rose from 3.5% to 4.0% YoY
Headline CPI (Monthly sa)	0.7%	Seasonally adjusted monthly headline inflation increase
Market Services Inflation (Annual)	4.1%	Annual rate unchanged from July and above CBA's 4.0% forecast
Fuel Prices (Monthly sa)	14.8%	Fuel prices rose sharply due to wholesale costs and excise unwinding, contributing ~0.5%pt to headline CPI