Commonwealth Bank of Australia Research Reports & Analysis

Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s recent economic research highlights a hawkish revision to its monetary policy outlook, driven by persistent domestic price pressures and resilient consumer demand. Following stronger-than-expected July CPI data—with headline inflation at 3.5% y/y and trimmed mean at 3.6% y/y—CBA now forecasts a 25bp RBA cash rate hike to 4.60% in November, while keeping the September meeting live. Policy tightening pressures are further underscored by July household spending surging 1.1% m/m (7.0% y/y), supported by strong discretionary consumption and existing financial buffers such as mortgage offset accounts. In the business sector, despite a 3.6% q/q contraction in Q2 2026 real capex driven by volatile ICT equipment imports, underlying non-ICT capex rose 1.6% q/q and FY27 nominal capex intentions were upgraded 9.0% to $228.9bn, bolstered by a 6GW data centre pipeline. CBA maintains a preliminary Q2 GDP estimate of 0.4% q/q (1.9% y/y) ahead of the National Accounts release. Over the longer term, the bank anticipates that eventual macroeconomic moderation will allow the RBA to implement two rate cuts in May and August 2027.