Report published September 23, 2026
The Point for Europe: Citi on European Defense Spending, Roche Phase II Data, and Riksbank Outlook
Citi · September 23, 2026
Citi's European morning call evaluates European defense spending sensitivities under a 3.0% vs. 3.5% GDP scenario, noting sustained upside for core contractors. It also covers positive clinical readouts for Roche and competitor updates impacting Novartis and Novo Nordisk, alongside macro previews for Germany and the Riksbank.
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Finvaulta summarizes Citi's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Even in a downside scenario where European defense spending rises only to 3.0% of GDP rather than Citi's 3.5% baseline, Citi sees sufficient upside to sustain Buy ratings on Babcock, Dassault, Leonardo, RENK, Rheinmetall, and Thales (plus BAE Systems if US plans hold).
- 2.Roche posted positive Phase II trial data for enicepatide in type 2 diabetes and obesity (2.65% HbA1c reduction and 15.5% weight loss at 48 weeks), presenting unmodeled sales upside ahead of Phase III initiation in 1H27.
- 3.Citi shifted its base case for the Riksbank, now expecting two 25bp policy rate hikes (one likely in December and another in spring 2027) as economic growth gathers momentum and krona weakness threatens inflation.
Table of Contents
- Top Call
- Company
- Must Read
- Industry
- Strategy & Economics
- Commodities
- Fixed Income & FX
- Key Rating and Target Price Changes
Report data
Key Rating and Target Price Changes
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Roche enicepatide (CT-388) HbA1c reduction | 2.65% | Phase II trial in T2D + obesity/overweight at 24mg highest dose |
| Roche enicepatide (CT-388) mean weight loss | 15.5% | Mean weight loss achieved with no plateau in Phase II study |
| Riksbank policy rate | 1.75% | Expected to remain on hold this week before hiking by 25bp in December |
| Voestalpine 2030 EBITDA margin target | 14% | Strategy 2030 target up from 10% in FY26 |
| Voestalpine railway system revenue target | 3 EUR billion | Railway systems target expanding from €2.2 billion |
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The Point for Europe is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 23, 2026.
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