Global FX Strategy

Latest edition · July 13, 2026

Citi Global FX Strategy Asymmetry still leans USD-positive over upcoming data prints

Citi Research maintains a USD-positive outlook ahead of upcoming US data prints. They continue to hold bearish positions on EURUSD through put spreads.

Following recent hawkish comments from Fed officials, the market's pricing for the July FOMC has become more symmetrical. However, Citi maintains a USD-positive stance, suggesting that the bar for the Fed to pivot toward rate cuts is higher than the bar for maintaining or increasing current rate hike pricing. Consequently, they remain short EURUSD via put spreads and anticipate potential for further G9 FX short-covering against the USD if data leans hawkish.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Market risks remain USD-positive heading into US CPI data, supporting a hold on EURUSD put spreads.
• 2.Street core CPI expectations have lowered, making the bar for an upside surprise lower.
• 3.G9 FX positioning against USD may see further short covering if data and Fed policy lean hawkish.

What this series covers

• CITI'S TAKE
• Appendix A-1
• RESEARCH ANALYST AFFILIATIONS / NON-US RESEARCH ANALYST DISCLOSURES
• OTHER DISCLOSURES

Edition archive

• Citi Global FX Strategy Asymmetry still leans USD-positive over upcoming data prints

  July 13, 2026

• Citi Global FX Strategy DXY- To chase or not to chase 20260617

  June 17, 2026

• Citi Global FX Strategy DXY To chase or not to chase

  June 17, 2026

• Citi Global FX Strategy EURGBP at key levels into catalysts, but gilt flows may be the key driver

  June 16, 2026

• Citi Global FX Strategy Our risk sentiment goes from “yellow to red 20260608

  June 9, 2026