Technical Strategy

Latest edition · October 6, 2026

Moderna She Wrote

Moderna is exhibiting a key negative reversal day after surging nearly 600% YTD, triggering short-term breakdowns in biotech ETFs XBI and IBB toward their 200 DMAs. Meanwhile, despite new S&P 500 highs, underlying breadth, rate, and credit cross-currents warrant caution, while Utilities offer near-term upside.

On October 6, 2026, BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky identified key negative technical inflection points across the biotech sector. Second-best S&P 500 YTD performer Moderna (MRNA) printed a key reversal off new highs, driving the SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI) and iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) to break short-term support levels, with risk of a shakeout toward their respective 200-day moving averages ($139 on XBI, ~$200/August lows on IBB). While the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, cross-currents in breadth, credit, and rates suggest the breakout could stall, echoing the failed August breakout. Conversely, Utilities rallied ~2%, with oversold mean-reversion metrics projecting further gains of 6.6% to 9.3% over the next 10-20 days.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Moderna (MRNA) is staging a key reversal off new highs after surging nearly 600% YTD, marking a likely negative inflection point that threatens biotech momentum.
• 2.The SPDR Biotech ETF (XBI) is breaking short-term support with downside risk toward August lows around $144 and potentially its 200 DMA around $139, which would offer a buyable dip.
• 3.Despite the S&P 500 breaking out to new all-time highs, conflicting cross-currents in breadth, interest rates, and credit indicate the breakout may fail to sustain momentum.

What this series covers

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Edition archive

• Moderna She Wrote

  October 6, 2026

• The Hunt for Red October

  October 1, 2026

• The Million Dollar Question(1)

  September 29, 2026

• Something's Gotta Give

  September 27, 2026

• Super ficial Rally(1)

  September 22, 2026

• Deep in the Tranches

  September 20, 2026