BNY Investment Strategy & Research Group
February 1, 2026
Checkpoints EMEA Financial Professional
Monthly UpdateCommoditiesCryptoEquitiesCommunication ServicesEnergy
BNY's February 2026 update maintains a base case for economic recovery driven by the end of US political shutdowns and global stimulus, suggesting a favorable outlook for equities and real assets.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The base case for 2026 is a 'Recovery' scenario (40% probability) expecting a rebound in Q1 driven by the end of the US government shutdown and increased fiscal support.
- 2.US inflation is expected to remain above target due to increased tariffs, while the Fed is projected to lower rates to 3% by the end of 2026.
- 3.US equity valuations are stretched, but market broadening and robust earnings provide support, while diversification into infrastructure and gold is recommended to hedge macro volatility.
Table of Contents
- Macroscope
- Themes
- Asset Class Views
- Global Macro
- EMEA Macro
- US Macro
- APAC Macro
- Global Equities
- US Equities
- Fixed Income
- Portfolio Construction
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Authors
Eric Hundahl, CFASebastian VismaraAninda MitraRyan Milgrim, CFAJonathan Park, CFANicholas Tocchio
Securities
SPXNVDABTC10-year US Treasuries
Themes
AI-Led Productivity CycleMarket BroadeningTariff-Driven Inflation
Regions
North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesChinaJapan