Report published September 23, 2026

Next Generation EU: The Programme Is Coming to an End, but Its Effects on Economic Activity Will Endure

BNP Paribas · September 23, 2026

The EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) expires on December 31, 2026, having successfully channeled EUR 310 billion between 2020 and 2025 toward capital infrastructure. Although the expiration will weigh on public investment in 2027, the economic impact will extend beyond 2026 due to lagged fund absorption and offsetting structural spending.

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Finvaulta summarizes BNP Paribas's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) expires at year-end 2026, with EUR 440 billion of the EUR 573 billion budget disbursed as of August 2026, requiring an accelerated pace to deploy the remaining EUR 133 billion.
2.RRF co-financed public spending totaled EUR 310 billion between 2020 and 2025, with 74% directed toward capital expenditures, notably rail transport, energy infrastructure, and digital infrastructure.
3.The macroeconomic drag from the program's conclusion in 2027 is expected to be limited, cushioned by delayed ground-level fund absorption, German public investment programs, and structural drivers like AI and defense.

Tangible results for investment in Europe
Infrastructure spending accounts for the majority of the funding
Investment spending related to the FRR has been increasing
What impact on EU's economic activity can we expect once this programme ends?

Report data

CHART 1: Breakdown of RRF funds for the 100 largest projects by country (EUR bn) — as of August 31, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
RRF budget disbursed	440.0 EUR billion	Out of a total RRF budget of EUR 573 billion
Remaining RRF budget to disburse	133.0 EUR billion	Amount requiring disbursement by year-end 2026
RRF co-financed public spending	310.0 EUR billion	Total public spending co-financed by the RRF
Capital expenditures share of RRF spending	74.0%	Share of co-financed spending consisting of capital expenditures
EU capital expenditures co-financed by RRF share of GDP	0.4%	Capital expenditures co-financed by RRF for the EU as a whole