Report published September 23, 2026

Goldilocks AI and the Three Bears: BNP Paribas Macro Research on Global AI Infrastructure Scenarios to 2030

BNP Paribas · September 23, 2026

BNP Paribas evaluates the global AI data center buildout through 2030, identifying a $5 trillion capex range between Cold (200GW) and Hot (300GW) scenarios against a 246GW Goldilocks central case. The report argues that regulatory constraints—safety rules, local moratoria, and geopolitics—rather than private finance or power bottlenecks, will dictate whether the buildout achieves a sustainable landing or creates overcapacity.

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Finvaulta summarizes BNP Paribas's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Global data center capacity is locked in at >150GW by end-2027, but a wide 200GW to 300GW range remains plausible by 2030, representing a $5 trillion capex swing across Cold, Goldilocks, and Hot scenarios.
2.Regulation rather than capital or technology is becoming the primary swing factor, driven by 'three bears': AI safety regulation, local data center moratoria/infrastructure friction, and geopolitical export controls.
3.Power delivery remains the most binding near-term constraint, though behind-the-meter generation and gas reciprocating engines offer a bridge to grid connectivity, boosting US gas demand by up to 10 bcf/d by 2030.

Executive Summary
Strategy
Markets want to build: Goldilocks AI
Regulation: the Three Bears
How to play it
Sector Views
US Semis & Networking Hardware
EMEA IT Hardware
APAC IT Hardware
US Software
US Internet
APAC Internet
APAC IT Software
US Telecoms Orbital Data Centers
Sustainability: Responsible AI
US Data Center REITs
EMEA Diversified Financials and Real Estate
EMEA Banks
US Power & Utilities
EMEA Utilities & Clean Energy
APAC New Energy
US Electrical Equipment & Multi Industry
EMEA Capital Goods
EMEA Oil & Gas
EMEA Mining
EMEA Building Materials
EMEA Infrastructure

Report data

BNPP AI data center scenarios – capacity, finance and energy — as of September 22, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Global Data Center Capacity (Goldilocks 2030E)	246 IT GW	Central progressive scenario easing to 17% pa growth from >150GW in 2027.
Total Annual Data Center Capex (Goldilocks 2030E)	2753 USD billion pa	Total new build and replacement capex in the Goldilocks scenario.
Added US Gas Demand for Power by 2030	10 bcf/d	Raised from 8 bcf/d due to rapid adoption of behind-the-meter gas engines.
Global Energy Storage System (ESS) Demand CAGR	27.9%	Projected growth from 550GWh in 2025 to 6,445GWh in 2035 driven by AIDC renewable integration and BTM backup.
Orbital vs Terrestrial 20-Year Compute Cost Premium	77%	Annualized cost of $16.6bn/GW-yr for orbital vs $9.4bn/GW-yr for terrestrial.

Source: BNP Paribas Research estimates; BNP Paribas Equity Research estimates; BNP Paribas Securities estimates. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.