Report published September 24, 2026

Country Risk Profile: Vietnam – Macroeconomic Outlook & External Liquidity by BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas · September 24, 2026

Vietnam continues to display solid GDP growth (projected at 7.3% in 2026), driven by robust manufacturing and surging AI-related electronics exports, alongside moderate sovereign and external debt. However, low foreign exchange reserves (covering less than 3 months of imports), high private debt, and banking sector fragility remain critical macro vulnerabilities.

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Finvaulta summarizes BNP Paribas's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Vietnam's economic growth remains exceptionally robust at 8% in 2025 and 8.2% in H1 2026 (projected at 7.3% in 2026), bolstered by strong private consumption, investment, and surging AI-related electronics exports.
2.Low external liquidity remains a major vulnerability: foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 88.3 bn in June 2026, covering less than 3 months of imports, amidst rapid trade balance deterioration in 2026.
3.Public finances and external solvency are sound with external debt below 25% of GDP and general government debt around 30% of GDP, primarily locally funded or on concessional terms.

Vietnam Has Continued to Enjoy Very Strong Economic Growth, Despite External Shocks
Vietnam Has Not Yet Fixed Its External Liquidity Problem, Which Is a Source of Vulnerability
Medium-Term Prospects Are Favourable
Country Risk Profile: Strong Economic Growth and Low Public and Foreign Debt vs. Low External Liquidity and a Weak Banking Sector

Report data

Vietnam – Key indicators

Metric	Estimate	Context
Real GDP Growth	7.3%	Projected annual real GDP growth for Vietnam, slowing from 8.0% in 2025.
Forex Reserves	88.3 USD billion	Foreign exchange reserves of Vietnam covering less than 3 months of imports.
Bilateral Trade Surplus with the United States	219 USD billion	Vietnam's trade surplus with the US surged ahead of Mexico and China.
Domestic Credit to Private Sector	141 % of GDP	Private sector credit elevated from 108% of GDP in 2019.
General Government Debt / GDP	30.8%	Moderate government debt burden, projected at 30.8% in 2026 and 30.2% in 2027.

Source: BNP Paribas; State Bank of Vietnam; US Customs / IMF / BNP Paribas; State Bank of Vietnam / BNP Paribas; Ministry of Finance / BNP Paribas. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.