Macro News

Latest edition · October 2, 2026

26102 US labour market

The September US employment report revealed weak non-farm payroll gains of 29k and an unemployment rate increase to 4.18%, refuting calls for a fresh global rate hiking cycle. Berenberg expects the Federal Reserve to deliver only one further 25bp hike rather than the three priced by markets.

September's US labour market data arrived stubbornly soft, with non-farm payrolls adding just 29k jobs against expectations of 90k, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.18%. Hourly earnings growth fell to 3.0% YoY, lagging headline CPI of 3.4% and squeezing real consumer spending power. While Q3 GDP is expected to be solid, the underlying foundations are fragile: consumer confidence is dipping, and the AI capital expenditure boom is leaking overseas into hardware imports, causing the goods trade deficit to widen to 4.6% of GDP. Consequently, Berenberg forecasts only one more 25bp rate hike from the Fed versus the nearly three hikes currently priced into financial markets.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.US non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000 MoM in September (below 90,000 consensus) and the unemployment rate rose to 4.18%, countering the narrative that central banks need an aggressive new hiking cycle.
• 2.Real household spending power is deteriorating as annual hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% YoY, trailing August CPI inflation of 3.4% and compounded by higher fuel prices.
• 3.The artificial intelligence investment boom will likely fail to offset waning consumer spending because hardware demand is leaking into imports, widening the goods trade deficit toward 4.6% of GDP in Q3.

What this series covers

• Berenberg Macro View

Edition archive

• 26102 US labour market

  October 2, 2026

• 260916 BoE preview

  September 16, 2026

• 260915 UK labour market

  September 16, 2026

• 260916 UK CPI

  September 16, 2026