Report published August 28, 2026
Berenberg Forecast Change: Extended Iran Energy Shock, Inflation Pressures, and Higher Rates
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Berenberg
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 26, 2026
Authors / editors: Holger Schmieding (Chief Economist), Felix Schmidt (Senior Economist), Andrew Wishart (Senior UK Economist)
Finvaulta summarizes Berenberg's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated energy and food prices have delayed the normalization of Brent crude oil to $75/bbl until summer 2027. Consequently, Berenberg raises its Eurozone and UK inflation projections, trims Eurozone 2027 growth to 1.3%, projects a 25bp ECB rate hike in September, and delays BoE rate cuts to 2027.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed, extending the energy supply shock and pushing back the expected decline in Brent crude to $75/bbl from end-2026 to summer 2027.
- 2.Higher oil, gas (+45% since late April), and drought/war-affected food prices prompt upward revisions to Eurozone inflation (2027 raised to 2.2% from 1.9%) and downward revisions to 2027 Eurozone GDP growth (lowered to 1.3% from 1.4%).
- 3.Berenberg now aligns with market consensus expecting an ECB rate hike of 25bp on 10 September before entering an extended pause until 2028.
Table of Contents
- Forecast change: extended Iran shock = more pain and higher rates
- Pain in the pipeline
- Consumers pay the price
- Another ECB mistake in the making
- UK outlook
- BoE cuts to come – but later
- Disclaimer
- Contacts
Report data
Higher for longer: oil price per barrel Brent crude, in $ — as of August 26, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price Target / Forecast | 75 USD/bbl | Delayed return to $75 per barrel due to persistent Strait of Hormuz closure. |
| Natural Gas Price Increase | 45% | Natural gas price elevation exacerbating consumer cost burdens heading into winter. |
| Eurozone Inflation (YoY) | 2.7% | Raised near-term inflation forecast for the Eurozone. |
| Eurozone Inflation (YoY) | 2.2% | Full-year 2027 Eurozone inflation forecast revision. |
| Eurozone GDP Growth (ex Ireland) | 1.3% | Lowered Eurozone growth due to real disposable income squeeze from energy and food costs. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Brent Crude Price Target / Forecast: 75 USD/bbl (Summer 2027) · Source: Berenberg, Bloomberg
- Natural Gas Price Increase: 45 % (Current vs late April 2026) · Source: Berenberg
- Eurozone Inflation (YoY): 2.7 % (Q1 2027) · Source: Berenberg
- Eurozone Inflation (YoY): 2.2 % (2027) · Source: Berenberg
- Eurozone GDP Growth (ex Ireland): 1.3 % (2027) · Source: Berenberg