Report published August 14, 2026
Barclays Research: Emerging Asia Outlook & Regional Monetary Policy Divergence
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Barclays
- Report date
- August 14, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Brian Tan, Bum Ki Son, Aastha Gudwani, Amruta Ghare
Finvaulta summarizes Barclays's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Monetary policy divergence in Emerging Asia is poised to continue as central banks prioritize domestic economic conditions over global shifts. Economies benefiting from the AI tech supply chain like Taiwan and Korea lean hawkish, whereas Indonesia, the Philippines, India, and Thailand remain on pause.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Monetary policy divergence across Emerging Asia is expected to persist as regional central banks focus on domestic idiosyncrasies amid expectations of a US Fed hold through 2027.
- 2.Central banks in economies benefiting from the AI-driven tech supply chain (Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia) are retaining a hawkish policy stance, with Taiwan's CBC expected to hike 12.5bp in September.
- 3.Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.75% next week due to easing FX pressure, while the Reserve Bank of India is seen holding rates through 2026 looking through food price increases.
Table of Contents
- Monetary policy divergence to continue
- Taiwan Q2 GDP showed strength in domestic demand continuing
- Korea: Despite the weak labour market data, market focus on back-to-back hike continues
- AUSTRALIA & EMERGING ASIA DATA REVIEW & PREVIEW
- INDIA SNAPSHOT
- KOREA SNAPSHOT
Report data
Review of last week's data releases
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Indonesia Policy Rate | 5.75% | Barclays forecast for Bank Indonesia rate meeting |
| India CPI Inflation | 4.45 % y/y | July CPI inflation print for India |
| Taiwan Q2 GDP Growth | 12.93 % y/y | Taiwan government revised Q2 GDP growth |
| Bank of Korea Policy Rate | 2.75% | Expected BoK policy rate decision |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Bank Indonesia Policy Rate: 5.75 % (August 2026) · Source: Barclays Research
- India CPI Inflation: 4.45 % y/y (July 2026) · Source: Haver Analytics, RBI
- Taiwan Q2 GDP Growth: 12.93 % y/y (Q2 2026) · Source: Barclays Research
- Bank of Korea Policy Rate: 2.75 % (August 2026) · Source: Barclays Research
Themes
Regions
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