Report published September 28, 2026
Markets Outlook: Moving Inflationary Parts – Bank of New Zealand
Bank of New Zealand · September 28, 2026
BNZ raised its forecast peak for New Zealand Q4 2026 CPI inflation to 4.3%, driven by higher oil prices and a weaker currency, raising the risk that the RBNZ hikes rates above prior guidance. Meanwhile, NZ rates have set cycle highs tracking US Treasuries, and the NZD faces headwinds against a resilient US dollar.
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Finvaulta summarizes Bank of New Zealand's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.BNZ nudges its Q4 2026 New Zealand CPI inflation forecast up to 4.3% due to jumping fuel prices and a softening NZD, increasing the risk that the RBNZ must hike the OCR more than projected.
- 2.BNZ has revised down its NZD forecasts, expecting NZD/USD to trade sideways in a 0.55–0.60 range over coming quarters with end-Q4 2026 and end-Q1 2027 targets lowered to 0.5750.
- 3.NZ rates reached fresh cycle highs driven by US Treasury yield surges, but benign NZGB supply and potential PREFU deficit improvements support further matched-maturity swap (MMS) spread tightening.
Table of Contents
- Moving inflationary parts
- Global Watch
- Key Event Previews
- Fixed Interest Market
- Foreign Exchange Market
- Technicals
- Quarterly Forecasts
- Annual Forecasts
- Key Upcoming Events
- Historical Data
Report data
Inflation risks higher into years' end — as of September 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NZ Q4 2026 Annual CPI Inflation Forecast | 4.3% | Nudged up a tick reflecting higher fuel prices and a softer currency. |
| NZ Q3 2026 Annual CPI Inflation Forecast | 3.8% | Remains a tick lower than the RBNZ's 3.9% projection. |
| NZ TWI Deviation from RBNZ Assumption | -3.9% | At 64.3, TWI is tracking around 3.9% below projection assumptions, adding ~0.4% to inflation forecasts. |
| NZ Filled Jobs Growth | 0.2% | Rose 0.2% m/m and up 0.9% y/y, consistent with ongoing employment growth. |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield Peak | 5.22% | Reached a fresh cycle peak as resilient US activity reinforced expectations of restrictive policy. |
Reports in this series
Markets Outlook is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
Part of the Markets Outlook series — view all 7 editions
- Jun 220260602 BNZMO
- Jun 820260608 BNZMO
- Jun 2920260629 BNZMO
- Aug 1720260817 BNZMO
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