Report published August 19, 2026
Bank of America: World at a Glance – Macro, FX & Rates Outlook (August 2026)
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Bank of America
- Report date
- August 19, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 18, 2026
Authors / editors: John Shin, David Hauner, Claudio Irigoyen, Claudio Piron, Helen Qiao, Michael Widmer, Pedro Diaz, Mark Cabana, Francisco Blanch
Finvaulta summarizes Bank of America's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
BofA Global Research keeps its baseline end-2026 forecasts for US 10-year Treasury yields (4.50%), EUR/USD (1.15), and Brent crude ($82/bbl) unchanged. Revisions are concentrated in Asia and G10 crosses, with USD/CNY upgraded to 6.60, USD/JPY lowered to 149, and BoJ terminal rate raised to 2.00%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Core rates and EUR-USD forecasts remain unchanged, with US 2Y and 10Y yields forecast at 4.50% by year-end 2026 and EUR/USD expected to end 2026 at 1.15.
- 2.USD/CNY forecast revised down to 6.60 by year-end (from 6.70 previously) due to export proceeds conversion, CNY undervaluation, and G7 trade pressure.
- 3.Bank of Japan policy outlook was revised hawkishly, raising the terminal rate assumption to 2.00% and end-2026 10-year JGB yield target to 3.00%.
Table of Contents
- Contents – World At A Glance
- US rates: moving with the data
- USD: losing steam
- EU rates: crude awakening
- EUR: better than feared but clarity needed
- JP rates: raster hikes, higher terminal
- JPY: patiently bullish
- GBP: the forgotten currency
- CA rates: higher curve on strong data
- CAD: revisions
- AU rates: RBA on hold
- AUD: rangebound for now
- NZD: scope for further upside
- CHF: inflation hedges emerging
- NOK: bearish bias remains
- SEK: neutral but optimistic
- China: revised to 6.6 year-end
- India: watching topside USDINR
- Indonesia: risk of dovish policy bias
- Korea: revise
- Malaysia: terms of trade
- Philippines: oil
- Singapore: rangy
- Taiwan: revisions
- Thailand: weakness
- South Africa: in line with forwards in Q4
- Türkiye: TRY to outperform forwards
- Czech Republic: in line with forwards Q4
- Hungary: bullish due to a structural shift
- Israel: weaker than forward imply
- Poland: stronger zloty from Q4
- Brazil
- Mexico
- Argentina
- Chile
- Colombia
- Peru: ambitious structural reform agenda
- Oil: diesel's perfect summer storm
- Gold: policy uncertainty and gold are back
- Copper: electrification is back
- Aluminum: tight aluminum inventories
- Global FX forecasts
- Yield forecasts
- Commodities forecasts
Report data
Exhibit 115: G10 FX Forecasts — as of August 18, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast | 4.50% | Forecast remains 4.50% through 2027. |
| EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecast | 1.15 USD per EUR | Targeting 1.15 at YE2026 and 1.20 by YE2027. |
| USD/CNY Exchange Rate Forecast | 6.60 CNY per USD | Revised down from 6.70 previously. |
| Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast | 82 USD/bbl | Full year 2026 average projection unchanged. |
| Gold Price Forecast | 4250 USD/oz | Projected to reach $5,000/oz by Q2 2027. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast: 4.50 % (Q4 2026) · Source: BofA Global Research estimates
- EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: 1.15 USD per EUR (Q4 2026) · Source: BofA Global Research estimates
- USD/CNY Exchange Rate Forecast: 6.60 CNY per USD (Q4 2026) · Source: BofA Global Research estimates
- Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast: 82 USD/bbl (2026 Average) · Source: BofA Global Research estimates
- Gold Price Forecast: 4250 USD/oz (Q4 2026) · Source: BofA Global Research estimates
Securities
Themes
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