Report published September 25, 2026

BofA Global Research: The Flow Show: China in a Bull Shop

Bank of America · September 25, 2026

BofA strategists highlight a base case of 'Debasement & Duration' as rising bond yields and volatility prompt policymaker panic to cap borrowing costs and energy prices. They recommend staying long commodities and EM assets while beginning to nibble on peak yield beneficiaries such as 30-year Treasuries and biotech into the US midterm elections.

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Finvaulta summarizes Bank of America's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The base case is 'Debasement & Duration': surging bond yields threaten the US boom, prompting policymaker panic intervention to cap yields and oil prices, weakening the US dollar.
2.Tactically, investors should stay long commodities and emerging market assets, position for growth over cyclicals into midterms, and begin nibbling at peak yield plays (30-year Treasuries, Mag7, biotech, small caps, REITs).
3.The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator stands at 9.3, maintaining an active contrarian 'Sell' signal triggered by extreme equity breadth and skewed long-stock/short-bond positioning.

Asset Class Flows
Fixed Income Flows
Equity Flows
BofA private client flows & allocations
The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
BofA Rules & Tools
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
2026 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
The Overbought & Oversold
Acronyms

Report data

Chart 2: Past 6 years...US 30-year Treasury bond price -60%, US nominal GDP +63% — as of September 23, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator	9.3 index	Proprietary sentiment indicator indicating extreme bullish positioning / 'Sell' contrarian signal.
Weekly Net Outflows from Global Equities	10.2 USD billion	Global equities experienced $10.2bn outflows, driven by a $21.1bn outflow from US equities.
Weekly Net Inflows to Fixed Income / Bonds	17.3 USD billion	Bonds recorded inflows for the 74th consecutive week.
BofA Private Client Equity Allocation	66.1%	BofA private clients manage $4.6tn AUM with 66.1% allocated to equities and cash at a record low of 9.4%.