Report published September 25, 2026

Talking Tubes: Structural Strength into 2027 – Bank of America Sector Report

Bank of America · September 25, 2026

BofA reaffirms Oil Services as its top subsector pick over Big Oils, turning outright bullish on Tube producers (Vallourec and Tenaris) driven by US trade barriers and expanding offshore capex. Vallourec is upgraded to Buy as the top pick for torque into FY27e.

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Finvaulta summarizes Bank of America's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Bullish on Oil Country Tubular Goods (Tubes) driven by sticky structural drivers: rising US pricing via import tariffs/antidumping investigations and growing international offshore volumes.
2.Vallourec is BofA's top pick for torque in Tubes after a double upgrade to Buy, forecasting 35% EBITDA growth in FY27e (10% ahead of consensus).
3.US Tube imports are down 34% YTD due to 50% Section 232 tariffs and antidumping probes covering 20% of imports, pushing US Seamless prices up 5% Q/Q with another 8% increase forecast into FY27e.

Tube prices: higher and higher
PMIs: sentiment strong
Costs up: welded margin constraints
Imports: down driving pricing up
Equity rate of change not yet recognised
Don't forget Int offshore momentum
European Big Oil resilience benchmarking
So what's priced in?
Big Oil earnings and cash flow heatmap
Oil and gas macro – what's new?
Sector valuation in context
Share price performance benchmarking
Recent research and upcoming events

Report data

Exhibit 19: Vallourec: we are 10% above EBITDA consensus

Metric	Estimate	Context
Seamless Tube Price	2787 $/t	August US tube pricing benchmark
US Tube Imports	-34%	Year-over-year decline in US tube imports driven by tariffs and antidumping investigations
US Tube Inventory	-11%	US monthly tube inventory sits 12% below the 5-year average
Committed Offshore Capex Growth	22%	Committed offshore oil and gas project capex forecast to grow 22% in 2026 and 61% in 2027
Vallourec FY27e EBITDA Growth	35%	BofA forecast EBITDA inflection for Vallourec, tracking 10% above consensus

Source: Argus Pipe Logix; Argus, US Steel Import Monitor; The OCTG Situation Report; Woodmac, BofA Global Research estimates; BofA Global Research estimates, Visible Alpha consensus. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.