US Economic Weekly

Latest edition · July 17, 2026

tjhFjNJt

BofA Global Research expects the Federal Reserve to implement 75bp of interest rate hikes in late 2026, citing persistent underlying inflation that remains above target despite recent cooling in headline CPI. The report highlights that labor market downside risks have dissipated, supporting a mid-cycle adjustment.

This weekly economic note from BofA Research argues that the Fed will likely raise rates by 75bp this year, specifically in September, October, and December, to reverse prior cuts and address underlying inflation concerns. The authors counter market skepticism, suggesting that Fed leadership has both the strategic motivation to secure credibility and sufficient committee support to tighten policy. Meanwhile, 2Q GDP tracking was revised up to 1.7% following stronger data, and the report emphasizes that while headline inflation shows improvement due to energy price volatility, core PCE remains problematic.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The authors maintain their forecast for 75bp of Fed hikes in 2026, driven by an inflation overshoot and resilient labor market conditions.
• 2.June inflation data (CPI/PPI) showed softness, but the report argues underlying inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target.
• 3.US GDP tracking for 2Q has been revised upward to 1.7%, supported by robust retail sales and business inventory updates.

What this series covers

• Arguments against Fed hikes ... and why we disagree
• The week ahead: Light data week & Fed in blackout
• June inflation review: A deflationary blip
• June retail sales review: Soft headline, stable consumer
• Warsh testimony review: Didn't break new ground
• Glossary
• Three species of doves
• Downside risks to labor have dissipated
• It’s “now or never” for Warsh
• 75bp is too much
• US GDP tracking
• Data in the past week
• Data in the week ahead
• Federal Reserve Speakers
• Weekly spending update
• Core views
• Economic forecast summary
• Rates and dollar forecasts
• Rolling calendar of business indicators
• CPI and PCE Forecast tables
• Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
• Important Disclosures
• Research Analysts

Edition archive

• tjhFjNJt

  July 17, 2026

• BofA US Economic Weekly June FOMC preview: park the bus

  June 12, 2026

• BofA US Economic Weekly Shades of 2022 but not a repeat 20260605

  June 5, 2026

• BofA US Economic Weekly Tinker Taylor, Labor, Supply 20260529

  May 29, 2026

• BofA US Economic Weekly Stagflation or reflation 20260515

  May 15, 2026