The Flow Show

Latest edition · September 3, 2026

The Flow Show Let them eat data

BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator remains in extreme bull territory at 9.6, generating a contrarian sell signal amid slowing equity inflows and tech redemptions. Anticipated rate hikes from the ECB, Fed, and BoJ alongside rising midterm odds of a Democratic sweep suggest peak bond yields and favor duration assets, debasement hedges, and international equities over US mega-caps.

In this edition of The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett highlights that central banks (ECB, Fed, BoJ) are preparing rate hikes to curb rising bond yields, which in the context of stalled payrolls could cement peak yields and support duration assets such as RTY, XBI, KRE, and REITs. Simultaneously, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator sits at an extreme 9.6 ('Sell'), while weekly fund flows showed an acceleration into cash ($30.0bn) and fixed income ($18.3bn) as equity inflows slowed and tech suffered $1.5bn in outflows. Politically, a rising 50% probability of a Democratic sweep in the US midterms represents a major potential risk-off catalyst that could prompt a greater than 10% pullback in US stocks and the dollar, making hedges like gold, commodities, and short financials attractive.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Central bank policy rate hikes across the ECB, Fed, and BoJ in September 2026 are seen as credible actions that could mark peak bond yields, supporting duration assets such as small caps, biotech, regional banks, and REITs.
• 2.The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator sits in extreme bull territory at 9.6, maintaining a contrarian sell signal triggered earlier in May.
• 3.Rising odds of a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms (Polymarket at 50%) present a major risk-off threat, potentially triggering an equity slump exceeding 10%, lower USD, and declining yields into year-end.

What this series covers

• Scores on the Doors
• The Price is Right
• Tale of the Tape
• The Biggest Picture
• Trading the Voters...
• Asset Class Flows (Table 3)
• Fixed Income Flows (Chart 13)
• Equity Flows (Table 4)
• BofA private client flows & allocations
• The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
• BofA Rules & Tools
• BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
• 2026 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
• Acronyms

Edition archive

• The Flow Show Let them eat data

  September 3, 2026

• The Flow Show Investing with Pleasure

  August 28, 2026

• The Flow Show - Poor man’s LTCM, rich man’s YCC

  August 6, 2026

• o4V8fIOV

  July 17, 2026

• BofA- Hartnett- The Flow Show No landing, no cut, no hike, no sweep, no bears

  July 9, 2026

• BofA - Hartnett- The Flow Show Red, White, and Boom

  July 2, 2026