Global Metals Weekly

Latest edition · September 4, 2026

Global Metals Weekly China’s Zeitenwende as the US saves copper

The US has absorbed over 1.2Mt of refined copper due to prospective tariffs and attractive CME contango financing economics, depleting exchange inventories across the LME and China. While Chinese demand growth slowed in 2Q26, planned grid and 'Six Networks' investments are set to offset the property downturn, supporting BofA's 2027 LME cash copper target of $15,500/t.

Aggressive shipments of refined copper to the United States have created a global inventory imbalance, with US stocks accumulating over 1.2Mt while LME and Chinese inventories decline to multi-year lows and LME curves invert into backwardation. CME contangos make warehouse-financing deals profitable, effectively locking metal in storage independently of potential US tariff implementations. Concurrently, China faces a 'Zeitenwende' as property-driven growth gives way to strategic electrification under the RMB25tn 'Six Networks' strategy and State Grid's RMB 4tn 15th Five-Year Plan. With housing now accounting for under 10% of Chinese copper demand, BofA remains bullish on copper, reiterating a 2027 price forecast of $15,500/t ($7/lb).

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The US has become a global sink for copper, holding over 1.2Mt in refined inventories due to tariff front-running and highly profitable CME warehouse-financing contango spreads.
• 2.LME forward curves have inverted into backwardation and Chinese inventories have dropped near multi-year lows as physical metal is pulled and locked in US storage.
• 3.China's apparent copper demand growth slowed to 2.4% YoY YTD amid housing weakness, but property now accounts for under 10% of copper demand, limiting its negative drag.

What this series covers

• US keeps attracting copper units – tariffs or no tariffs
• China demand under pressure but grid offsets housing
• The grid should remain essential for copper
• China’s Zeitenwende
• The US absorbs any spare copper units
• Copper demand has been under pressure
• China's copper demand growth eased steadily in 2Q26
• Weakness in electricity FAI looks to be temporary
• State grid plans to increase spending
• 'Six Networks' to drive RMB25tn investment in 15th FYP
• PMIs subdued, but averages are comfortably above 50
• Appendix
• Price forecasts and summary of rationale/risks
• Supply and demand balances

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