Global Emerging Markets Weekly

Latest edition · October 8, 2026

BofA Global Emerging Markets Weekly Nibble EM in Thailand 2026 10 09

BofA Global Research advises selectively building EM exposure ahead of the Bangkok IMF meetings, targeting high risk-premium local rates and external debt. Top trade recommendations include long Brazil NTN-F 2037, long Hungary HGB 2037 hedged with CZK swaps, short CNH/long TWD, and PDVSA debt over Venezuelan sovereign bonds.

Heading into the Bangkok IMF meetings, BofA Global Research identifies midterms-related and FOMC volatility as a buying opportunity to add emerging market risk assets. While near-term USD strength and Iran geopolitical risks persist, US rates terminal pricing is contained and LatAm local debt has exhibited notable resilience to US Treasury selloffs. BofA highlights high risk-premium opportunities, endorsing long duration in Brazil (NTN-F 2037) following Flavio Bolsonaro's first-round election lead, receiving Mexico 2y TIIE, buying Hungarian 2037 bonds hedged against Czech payer swaps, shorting CNH against TWD to capture AI export reflation, and favoring PDVSA bonds over Venezuelan sovereign debt for restructuring optionality.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.Tactically add EM exposure around the Bangkok IMF meetings, as volatility ahead of US midterms and the October FOMC creates opportunities, focusing on high risk-premium rates and external debt.
• 2.Brazil duration via NTN-F 2037 remains the top LatAm trade to monetize high real yields after Flavio Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected first-round election finish.
• 3.In EEMEA, go long Hungarian HGB 2037 hedged with a 10y CZK payer ahead of a positive fiscal deficit announcement below 5% of GDP.

What this series covers

• The View
• Asia Economics
• Asia Strategy
• EEMEA Economics
• EEMEA Strategy
• LatAm Economics
• LatAm Strategy
• Sovereign Strategy
• Credit Risk Premium Model
• CTA Monitor in EM
• EMFX CTA Positioning
• BEER Model
• EM Rates CTA Positioning
• Rules of thumb for front-end trades
• EXD Sentiment Indicator
• GEMs Macro Tables
• EM Alpha Trade Recommendations
• Valuation & risk

Edition archive

• BofA Global Emerging Markets Weekly Nibble EM in Thailand 2026 10 09

  October 8, 2026

• BofA Global Emerging Markets Weekly Buy in Bangkok 2026 10 01

  October 1, 2026

• Global Emerging Markets Weekly Don’t hyperventilate about hyperscalers

  September 18, 2026

• Global Emerging Markets Weekly Not to get carried away

  September 10, 2026

• Global Emerging Markets Weekly Peak hawkishness is near

  September 3, 2026