Recurring series

Global Economic Weekly

Finvaulta tracks 6 editions of Global Economic Weekly from Bank of America, published between May 15, 2026 and September 4, 2026. Each edition is summarized on its own page.

Latest edition · September 4, 2026

Global Economic Weekly Is this a Kohn day or a Bernanke day

BofA examines central bank policy stances following Jackson Hole, contrasting pre-emptive versus aggressive hiking playbooks while evaluating escalating sovereign debt interest burdens in the US. Regional analyses highlight expected rate hikes from the ECB, hold-and-see stances from the BoE and CEE central banks, and widening deficits in the Philippines and Colombia.

This weekly report analyzes the strategic monetary policy signaling between the Fed's Warsh and Waller, contrasting the pre-emptive 'Bernanke trail' against the aggressive, catch-up 'Kohn trail'. In the US, rising net interest expenses—now exceeding defense and Medicare outlays—threaten a negative feedback loop of elevated Treasury issuance and widening term premiums. Internationally, the ECB is poised for a likely final 25bp hike to 2.50% before holding, while the UK absorbs higher energy prices with inflation peaking at 3.5% in November. In emerging markets, gas pass-through delays suggest market pricing for CEE rate hikes is overdone, while the Philippines and Colombia face expanding fiscal deficits driven by debt servicing and structural rigidities.

Read the latest edition in full

Key takeaways from the latest edition

1.Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole rhetoric shifted the perceived policy default toward a more aggressive, reactive hiking cycle (the 'Kohn trail') to re-establish credibility following July's dovish communication.
2.The US fiscal challenge is shifting heavily toward rising interest expenses, which top $1.1tn (3.5% of GDP) and exceed defense and Medicare outlays, heightening long-term debt-interest rate feedback loop risks.
3.The ECB is expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike to 2.50% in September and keep a mild hiking bias, but with subdued core inflation second-round effects, it is likely the conclusion of the hiking cycle.

What this series covers

Global Letter: Is this a Kohn day or a Bernanke day?
Forward Misguidance
Waller and the freedom of not being the Chairman
The lesson: more transparency means less commitment
United States: In the interest of time
Don't blame $40tn
Higher rates will exacerbate this trend
A compounding problem
The composition of deficits matters
Euro Area: ECB preview – a last hike?
A September hike to conclude the short hiking cycle?
Where do we go next?
ECB forecast update: tinkering at the margins, but keeping the signal
UK: Waiting out the energy shock
Forecast update: A better start, a slower finish?
Higher energy prices
The economy has weathered the energy shock better than expected
Inflation moves higher due to energy prices
BoE call unch.: on hold in 2026, near-term risks for a hike
Asia: Philippines – Fiscal deficit to widen beyond 6% GDP
Debt service costs take a bigger bite of the budget
Infrastructure spending has been slow to recover
Emerging EMEA: CEE – Gas risks real, hikes overpriced
Gas pass-through is slow, uneven and policy-dependent
Czech households relatively more exposed to gas shocks
CNB: one more hike is possible, but 3-4 hikes look overdone
Poland: regulation delays and smooths gas pass-through
Latin America: Colombia – 2027 budget
Government unveils a more challenging fiscal outlook
Re-drafted 2027 budget wasn't well received by markets
Transparency effort to regain the credibility of markets
But no tangible fiscal adjustment in the 2027 budget
Adjustment will come in separate bill, "Fiscal Adj. Law"
Proposed adjustment seems adequate, in our view
Fiscal adjustment law will largely rely on expenditure cuts
But why cutting expenditures in a separate law?
FM presentation at Asobancaria sheds more light
Key forecasts
Detailed forecasts

Edition archive

Series at a glance

Editions tracked: 6
First edition: May 15, 2026
Latest edition: September 4, 2026

All Bank of America research

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