Report published September 25, 2026

Sep Jobs Preview: Don't Fall for the Headline – Bank of America

Bank of America · September 25, 2026

BofA expects September US payrolls to increase by a below-consensus 60k due to seasonal factor payback, while underlying job growth remains solid at over 100k. The report will likely not alter the Fed's hawkish policy path, with BofA projecting two additional 25bp rate hikes in October and December 2026.

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Finvaulta summarizes Bank of America's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.September nonfarm payrolls are projected to rise by a below-consensus 60k (private: 50k), driven primarily by seasonal adjustment payback rather than genuine labor market deterioration, with underlying monthly job growth remaining resilient at 100k+.
2.The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% with participation at 61.6%, although household survey payback poses an upside risk of a print at 4.2%.
3.BofA maintains an out-of-consensus forecast that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 25bp at both the October and December 2026 FOMC meetings, viewing the labor report as secondary to CPI given sticky inflation.

Sep jobs preview: Don't fall for the headline
Wake me up when seasonals end
The week ahead: Jobs and PCE revisions
Data preview: Revisions to lower y/y inflation by 0.2pp
Yields might still be some ways from the pain threshold
A "perfect 10" for household balance sheets
Underlying job growth to keep broadening across sectors
Punitive seasonal factors in September
TPS visa revocations could be a headwind
U-rate to remain at 4.1%, with risk of rising to 4.2%
Stable wages: supportive of consumption, not inflationary
Breakeven: Likely slightly higher than 20k/month
Sep jobs probably won’t be decisive for Oct Fed decision
US GDP tracking
Data in the past week
Data in the week ahead
Federal Reserve Speakers
Weekly spending update
Core views
Economic forecast summary
Rates and dollar forecasts
Rolling calendar of business indicators
CPI and PCE Forecast tables
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Report data

Exhibit 2: The Aug print was boosted by an unusually favorable seasonal adjustment, which could reverse in Sep

Metric	Estimate	Context
Forecast Nonfarm Payrolls Change	60 k	BofA forecast for September nonfarm payrolls, down from 162k in August
Forecast Unemployment Rate	4.1%	Forecast for the September unemployment rate
3Q GDP Tracking	3.0 % q/q saar	BofA US 3Q 2026 GDP tracking estimate
US Federal Net Interest Expense as % of GDP	3.3%	Federal government net interest expense reaching a record high as a share of GDP
Card Spending per Household	6.9 % y/y	Total BAC credit and debit card spending per household growth